Liverpool below Man Utd in the Sky Sports 'expected' table with set-pieces and Mohamed Salah's dip among issues - Between the Lines

This week's Between the Lines weighs up whether Liverpool's back-to-back defeats against Crystal Palace and Galatasaray are merely a blip or a sign of more serious issues.

Eddie Nketiah's 97th-minute strike at Selhurst Park condemned Arne Slot's side to their first loss of the season. Just three days later, Galatasaray striker Victor Osimhen converted a match-winning penalty against Liverpool - with Alisson limping off and now ruled out of Saturday's clash against Chelsea, live on Sky Sports.

The champions are still two points clear at the top of the Premier League table thanks to a succession of late goals in their previous fixtures. But had these last two results been coming?

Underlying performance data suggests Liverpool are fortunate to be top. In fact, the Sky Sports expected table, which is based on our xG formula, has the champions seventh, on nine points, behind struggling Manchester United on expected goal difference.

The numbers suggest Liverpool have only been statistically better than their opponent in two of their six Premier League games so far this season, with newly-promoted Sunderland the only side in the division to have overperformed by a higher margin.

So what lies behind the dip in their performance levels?

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Set-piece woe for Slot

Events at Selhurst Park on Saturday underlined one of the issues, with Palace scoring both of their goals from dead-ball situations. Liverpool only conceded 10 non-penalty goals from set-pieces last season. The number already stands at four this term.

Ismaila Sarr's opening goal, from a Daichi Kamada corner, and Nketiah's winner, from a Chris Richards long throw, followed two set-piece goals conceded against Newcastle in August.

Excluding penalties, only West Ham and Leeds have conceded more set-piece goals than Liverpool in the Premier League this season. A closer look at the numbers shows the Reds are allowing significantly more shots and expected goals from set-pieces than last term.

It might have something to do with upheaval on and off the pitch. There have been changes to defensive personnel, with Trent Alexander-Arnold departing and Milos Kerkez usurping Andrew Robertson at left-back. They are also working with a new set-piece coach in Aaron Briggs, who was previously their individual development coach.

They are having to adapt following those changes. Ibrahima Konate's poor form alongside Virgil van Dijk has given them another issue. But Slot has also acknowledged the wider context of a growing number of sides prioritising set-pieces.

"We've shown we are a team that can defend set-pieces really well, but more and more in football, you see it is becoming a set-piece game," he said. "This is a style of football you see more and more."

The data backs that up, with set-piece goals occurring at a higher rate than ever in the Premier League, at an average of 0.95 per game. "Every team you face at the moment, you have to be so well prepared when it comes to set-pieces," added Slot.

Recent evidence suggests those preparations will have to be refined if Liverpool are to get back to the level of last season.

New signings struggling?

Defending set-pieces is a collective effort but Liverpool have had issues on an individual level too. Konate's form is one - sparking debate on whether the Reds should have prioritised signing Marc Guehi instead of pursuing the record-breaking Alexander Isak deal. Most of the other concerns centre around their new arrivals.

Jeremie Frimpong became the latest of them to be called out by Slot for an error before Nketiah's winner against Palace. "One of our players decided to run out because he wanted to play a counter-attack which was of no use because time was up," he said.

Slot's criticism came two weeks after he withdrew fellow full-back Kerkez in the first half of Liverpool's 1-0 win at Burnley following a booking the Liverpool boss later described as "not smart". Kerkez, like Frimpong, has had a difficult start at the club.

Hugo Ekitike has also been ticked off for what Slot described as a "needless and stupid" red card in the Carabao Cup victory over Southampton which caused him to miss the Palace game through suspension, a blow given the forward's fine form.

Isak has shown encouraging signs as he builds up his fitness, scoring his first goal for the club against Southampton, but Florian Wirtz's subdued start continued against Palace and Galatasaray.

The 22-year-old, a £116m signing from Bayer Leverkusen, is yet to register a goal or assist for his new club as he struggles to carve out a role for himself in Slot's system.

"I think it's fair to say he hasn't been great for Liverpool so far," said Sky Sports' Jamie Carragher of Wirtz on Monday Night Football. "But also, I don't think Liverpool have been great for him so far.

"Liverpool have got to do more for him because he's not getting the ball anywhere near as often as he did before."

A comparison between this season and last season shows Wirtz's touches have dropped by more than 30 per cent, from 86.9 per 90 minutes at Bayer Leverkusen to 63.7 per minutes at Liverpool, making it more difficult for him to show his worth.

Salah's waning attacking threat

And there's another red flag: Mohamed Salah's goal threat has plummeted. The Reds' talisman has two goals and two assists in six league games, which is down on last season - partly due to the Egypt international setting such a high benchmark with 47 goal involvements.

But the underlying data suggests Salah's attacking influence is at an all-time low - by some margin. The 33-year-old is averaging just 0.4 expected goal involvements per 90 minutes - less than half the average from his previous eight campaigns at the club.

No one underestimates the role Salah played in Liverpool's title-winning season, but the numbers underline the sheer scale of his contribution. He was involved in more than half of Liverpool's goals during the season - either scoring or assisting - resulting in a league-topping 55.3 per cent team goal involvement.

His 47 goal involvements directly influenced the outcome in 21 of Liverpool's 38 games, contributing to 38 of their 84 points. Without those contributions, the Reds would have finished 14th - behind Everton.

Of course, someone else might have stepped up in Salah's absence - but matching his level of impact? That's highly unlikely, especially without the service previously provided by Alexander-Arnold.

Reds still title favourites

So, should Liverpool fans be worried?

Not according to Opta's predicted table.

Six games in, and with Liverpool sitting top, Opta have Slot's side finishing as champions, two points ahead of Arsenal in second.

Still title favourites, then. But from set-piece defending to Salah's waning influence, Liverpool have issues to address ahead of Saturday's game against Chelsea, live on Sky Sports.

Read last week's Between the Lines

Is Pep Guardiola leading the Premier League's next great style shift? We revealed the adjustments to Manchester City's style this season as Premier League clubs embrace direct play and counter-attacks.

(c) Sky Sports 2025: Liverpool below Man Utd in the Sky Sports 'expected' table with set-pieces and Mohamed Salah's dip among issues - Between the Lines