A subdued Tory conference could be a chance for Badenoch to turn her fortunes around - but will she?

Conservative Party conferences of old were packed out events bustling with ministers, MPs, lobbyists and members.

Roll on just over a year after their biggest defeat ever, and the Tories' gathering in Manchester, from 5-8 October, will be a more sober affair.

Despite their recent loss, last year's conference was anything but subdued as it was turned into a hustings for their new leader to replace Rishi Sunak. Cue: a bit of a bun fight.

A month later, Kemi Badenoch was crowned leader. So this conference not only marks a year after that abysmal result but also nearly a year of Ms Badenoch in charge.

A series of policy announcements are expected throughout the conference, with the first today being an eye-catching vow to create an ICE-style "removals force" to tackle illegal immigration to the UK, which follows her pledge to leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).

"Stronger borders" is one of the two key themes of this conference, along with "stronger economy" - slogans set to feature on banners throughout the conference venue.

It is part of her bid to scrape back her party's position in the polls as Nigel Farage's continues to lead in the national polls.

Just three weeks before this year's gathering, one of her ministers, Danny Kruger, became the first serving Tory MP to defect to Reform.

Eleven former Conservative cabinet members, ministers and MPs had switched to Reform this year ahead of Mr Kruger. Ex-health minister Maria Caulfield defected after Mr Kruger.

Sub-optimal for Badenoch, but an issue she has brushed off, accusing them of "running away rather than solving problems".

The threat of Reform, which has led the polls for weeks, dominated the Lib Dem and Labour conferences but, if PMQs is anything to go by, there is no guarantee Ms Badenoch will put Mr Farage's party at the forefront of her two conference speeches.

Rather than just the traditional leader's speech at the end of the conference, Ms Badenoch will deliver an additional one today, in which she will set out the party's broad new plan to tackle illegal migration.

Some 34,401 people have crossed the Channel in small boats so far this year, according to PA news agency analysis of Home Office figures, putting 2025 on course to break the record for most arrivals in a single year.

The traditional end-of-conference speech will still take place on Wednesday, as she seeks to grab headlines and cut through the electorate in a way she has failed to do so far.

Also overshadowing the party as they head to Manchester is the High Court ruling that a PPE company linked to Tory peer Baroness Michelle Mone must repay the government £122m for breaching a contract for medical gowns during COVID.

Ms Badenoch said Lady Mone had brought "embarrassment and shame to the party" and should have the "book thrown at her".

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The Tory leader has faced criticism over her leadership style, initially because she carried out very few media interviews.

But she has said this was because the party was close to bankruptcy when she took over.

"I basically inherited a distressed asset and my first job was to just make sure we didn't go bust," she told The Spectator this week.

"Most of my first three to six months were spent on that. I just couldn't get out there much. The opportunity cost was perhaps not doing much media."

But she has since failed to unify the party, which was illustrated by another disastrous result in the May 2025 local elections.

And the latest results from a bimonthly YouGov poll, which tracks her performance as Tory leader, show Conservative voters have their lowest opinion of her since she became leader, with 38% thinking she should remain as leader.

The highest number of Tory members (39%) now think she should stand down and let someone else take over - a rise of 10% since July.

So, this conference is an opportunity to get members - and MPs - behind her.

One of those MPs who has been unsubtle about his ambition to replace her is shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick, who lost out to Ms Badenoch in the leadership race.

Ms Badenoch has brushed off his attempts to outshine her, saying many of the views he offers so readily beyond his brief "are my thoughts repackaged".

"I don't mind that he says what he thinks," she told The Spectator.

"The advantage of having a leadership contest is that you've kind of already said what you think.

"Repeating it, which is what Rob tends to do, is not new information."

Also, days before the conference starts, former Conservative prime minister Baroness Theresa May gave a rare public rebuke of Ms Badenoch after the Tory leader pledged to replace the UK's world-leading Climate Change Act with a strategy for "cheap and reliable energy".

Baroness May said she is "deeply disappointed by this retrograde step" and that to row back on the strategy to tackle climate change "would be a catastrophic mistake".

The Tory conference could be a chance for Ms Badenoch to turn her fortunes around, but she will have to work at getting her MPs - and Tory members (those who are left) - behind her and the party she promised to "renew" and to "prepare over the course of the next few years for government".

(c) Sky News 2025: A subdued Tory conference could be a chance for Badenoch to turn her fortunes around - but w