Starmer's judgement day: Can he survive as PM?

Sir Keir Starmer is facing trial by parliament on a judgement day that could deliver a double whammy to his hopes of surviving as prime minister.

First, in a box office committee hearing, his claims that he followed "due process" in appointing Peter Mandelson as US ambassador could face serious challenges.

And second, in an emergency Commons debate secured by Kemi Badenoch, the PM faces demands for a potentially career-ending probe into claims that he misled MPs.

Judgement Day: Part One

The day of drama at Westminster begins with a 9am appearance at the foreign affairs select committee by former top Foreign Office mandarin Sir Philip Barton.

His evidence to the committee's inquiry into the Mandelson vetting scandal is potentially hugely damaging because he was strongly opposed to Mandelson's appointment.

Last week his successor, Sir Olly Robbins, told the committee the Foreign Office was put under "constant pressure" by 10 Downing Street to give the disgraced peer the job before vetting.

And in a new blow to the PM, Foreign Office security chief Ian Collard backed Sir Olly's claim about pressure from Downing Street due to "regular contact from No 10", he claimed.

In written evidence to the committee after he was blocked from appearing in person, Mr Collard said he felt "pressure to deliver a rapid outcome" during the vetting of Mandelson.

Judgement Day: Part Two

Next up, at 11am, is Sir Keir's controversial former chief of staff Morgan McSweeney. The committee has heard he told Sir Phillip to "just f***king approve it", a claim he denies.

Mr McSweeney is also expected to be quizzed on the theft last October of his mobile phone, containing vital records, something the Tories say is "fishy" and "beggars belief".

Then in the Commons, MPs will debate and vote on a motion tabled by the Tory leader demanding an inquiry into the PM by the powerful Privileges Committee of MPs.

It was this committee which in 2022 produced a damning report concluding that Boris Johnson lied to MPs over "partygate", which brought about his downfall as PM.

Starmer stands firm

Ahead of his judgement day in the Commons, Sir Keir came out fighting in a defiant interview with Cathy Newman on Sky News and later in a tough speech to Labour MPs.

Asked by Cathy Newman why he didn't just let the Privileges Committee investigate and be proven right, he replied: "Because it's a stunt. We've got huge amounts of transparency going on already."

And in his speech to a packed meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party, he described the allegations put forward by the Conservatives as "totally baseless" and "absolutely ridiculous".

"This is a political stunt by our opponents who want to bring us down, obscure our message, and stop us getting on with our work," the PM told Labour MPs.

"And the timing tells you everything nine days before local elections. Tomorrow is pure politics, and we need to stand together against it."

But will he win the vote?

After the meeting, Chief Whip Jonathan Reynolds confirmed to Sky News that Labour MPs would be on a three-line whip to vote against the Tory motion. "We'll vote it down," he said.

With its huge Commons majority, the government should comfortably win the vote, because even those Labour MPs who want Sir Keir to quit don't want to hand a victory to the Tories.

And even malcontents and supporters of Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham accept that now, nine days before vital elections, is not the time to fire the starting gun on a leadership race.

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Ahead of the vote, Labour grandees including Gordon Brown urged MPs to back Sir Keir. The former PM told Labour MPs to "put the country first" when there are "conflicts raging around the world".

Downing Street also published a letter from ex-civil service chief Sir Chris Wormald to Sir Keir, declaring "the appropriate processes were followed in both the appointment and withdrawal" of Mandelson.

But Kemi Badenoch responded on X: "Rubbish. The only advice that matters is the advice Starmer was given BEFORE appointing Mandelson. Not the hasty justification written a year later."

(c) Sky News 2026: Starmer's judgement day: Can he survive as PM?